I added the question mark because A) we don’t know yet for sure if this increase will stick nor B) do we know for sure if it will be temporary.

That said, the industry belief is yes to both. In my last market update, I mentioned producers were pushing for a $0.05/lb increase but it was not acknowledged by the market.

Due to continued volatility in the Middle East and still high (if not rising) transportation costs, it seems likely that a small increase will be acknowledged in the next few days. Somewhere in the range of $0.03 to $0.06/lb. CDI has forecasted a $0.03/lb increase but IHS has not released any info yet as of 9/30.

Increases are never good but if we’re going to see an increase, at least it’s a “normal” increase instead of the rapid and frankly, ridiculous, increases seen earlier this year.

On Polypropylene - it’s actually trending the opposite way. Just to share that tidbit.

Stretch film manufacturers have sent out increase letters that will take effect in the next week or two. Another reminder - stretch film is always the first domino to fall and if the indices don’t acknowledge an increase, said letters will be rescinded.

Oddly, trash bags or can liners (I know…it’s not packaging but it’s relevant nonetheless), have not announced increases yet. Typically they fall in line with stretch film.

Beyond film, we’re seeing foam prices start to move as well. Nothing else plastics related has changed yet. Especially if we see PE resin move the full 6 cents, I’m sure next month’s newsletter will have other plastic items listed as affected.

At least in recent history, this is the fastest the corrugated industry has increased prices. Not even during COVID did corrugated increase this much this fast.

Fastmarkets acknowledged a $70/ton increase in September. Bringing the 2026 total to $170/ton.

Why? Well the main reasons cited are 1) 93% increase in OCC recycled fiber since January. 2) Diesel prices nearly 75% higher than a year ago. And 3) limited capacity (due to planned mill closures over the last 12-24 months). 4) A new concern is the 50% tariff announced in the Canada/US trade war as “pulp & paper” was included.

Beyond this, lead times are still extended, if not extending. For a rule of thumb, plan on 3-4 weeks for a standard corrugated item.

As the total prices have increased, the old rule of thumb of 1.5% per $10/ton movement is a little outdated. 1.25% per $10/ton might be a better rule of thumb. Though times are weird - it’s hard to say that with a whole lot of certainty. I’m aware of some companies who are buying direct from big integrators like PCA who are taking increases larger…more in line with $100/ton or more.

By and large, it seems like the implementation timeline will be the last week of October.

I don’t think so. There are two sides to every story…and increase. This year has been unprecedented. While things can change, it seems like we might be flat now through the end of the year. If I HAD to bet on when we could see another increase, perhaps summer or fall of 2027.

I like to remind myself of the saying “focus on what you can control, not what’s out of your control.” Or something like that.

No one can control the market. But we can control how we respond.

As a supplier, FlexPAC is material and manufacturer neutral. On the manufacturing side, we are not limited by a single plant’s capabilities or capacity. We leverage that and our corporate volume accordingly (among other methods) to mitigate cost increases.

On the individual customer level though, why do you use the packaging you do? Do you need a box or specific film or bag? Can automation or a process change provide savings that dwarf any item increases? Can you consolidate business from multiple suppliers to just a few or even one (like FlexPAC….subtle pitch lol) in exchange for cost mitigation?

Not to make a blanket or absolute statement because it’s never cut and dry, but at least over time — when you start to view packaging as solely a commodity, that’s when control is lost and handed over to the market alone.

If you’ve ever had a “what if” or “if only we could do…” thought about your packaging, reach out. Even if it was something you looked into as recently as a year ago, that impossible idea may be a real possibility.

If you have questions or want to learn more, reach out! You can reply to this email, book a conversation here, or reach out to me at the info below.

(812)244-9393 & [email protected]

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