Granted, I can’t say the last time I was on one. Well, I tried doing one with my 2 year old last weekend but only for a split second…thought I was going to break it.

CDI & IHS haven’t formally announced where they’re settling at for July yet but it’ll be either flat or a small decrease. The seesaw part is that many resin producers are nominating an increase for August. The question is if it will stick.

Bearish Drivers: High inventories which counter rate hikes

Bullish Drivers: Renewed Iran & Strait of Hormuz tensions. Risk of Gulf Coast tropical storms or hurricanes.

My optimistic approach has actually improved: we see a decrease soon, no more increases, the Strait reopens fully soon, and we start seeing market correction late 2026 / early 2027. Though with everything going on and what we’ve gone through so far this year, it makes my brain hurt to try and project anything. Because we could also see an increase and no market correction in the near future. Time will tell.

One note - typically I reference PE here because the bulk of packaging materials are made up of PE and to a large extent, all the major packaging resins follow the same line. I do want to call out Polypropylene for a second. Following a 9 cent/lb decrease in June, PP settled up 3 cents in July.

Stretch film and poly items have either come down or will be in the very, very near future. And hopefully another decrease (if only small) soon.

On the flip side, Sealed Air just announced an increase on Instapak (foam-in-place). And other “traditional” foam products have recently gone up. All are citing fuel, raw materials, and tariffs.

For other items, I’m hesitantly projecting those to stay flat for the time.

You’ve probably heard the phrase “burn the boats” in the context of preventing retreat. I wish we could burn the boats before they arrive.

The industry was flat in July but don’t get comfortable. PCA was the first to fire what is no understatement to call a shot across the bow. They announced a $140/ton increase. Smurfit Westrock and IP followed with $100/ton and $80/ton respectively.

Diminshed capacity, labor & energy costs, fuel prices, and OCC costs continue to be cited as reasoning for increases. Well, few manufacturers are openly citing diminished capacity but we’re no dummies. In short, costs that go into the manufacturing process besides the paper itself continue to rise.

Ryan Fox is a leading voice in the corrugated industry and he recently shared a LinkedIn post highlighting this.

I thought we would have some calm for awhile and maybe one more increase this year. The big integrators started pushing increases around this time last year and it took several months for those to materialize. It’s possible that we don’t see another increase this year…but plan on one.

Are you repeatedly playing the price & negotiation game to combat increases? You can be the best negotiator in the world and the only way you’ve kept your prices flat in 2026 is if you were paying way too much to start.

Unless — your operation has changed. This year has been the busiest of my career….because I don’t like to take increases sitting down. Some of my customers have seen their bottom lines barely affected or have seen actual improvements. But that’s because they’ve been open to wholesale process and/or packaging changes.

If you don’t know where to start and haven’t received any cost saving ideas from your supplier(s) this year, take that next cold call. If they seem professional, invite them in…but do it with an open mind. Because that’s what it typically takes to show transformative results.

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results” - Albert Einstein, or Rita Mae Brown

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